If you are to believe the BBC then Reform is a government in waiting with Nigel Farage, the next Prime Minister. The mainstream media is at pains to sell Reform’s rise as the end of the two party system and Nigel Farage as an anti-Westminster, anti-establishment leader.
However, as thinking and aware Muslims, it is important to analyse the local election results separating the hyperbole from facts on the ground.
It must be emphasized that Muslims can not be complacent about the threat from Reform. We need to however focus on community based actions that directly address the causes of the threat – the ideas, lies and misinformation – aimed at turning the wider population against Islam and Muslims. Party politics distracts us from this and can be counterproductive.
So how is Reform’s threat being overplayed:
Fact 1
With all 136 council results in on Sunday 9th May, Reform have won just 14 councils, despite winning 1453 councilor seats. These councils are scattered across the country – a couple in London, 4 in the north of England, 2 in the Midlands and a few around Tyneside. There isn’t a solid turquoise wall anywhere in the country.
Fact 2
Team Reform is far from anti-establishment. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform is a privately educated, metals trader and Eurosceptic who founded UKIP and then the Brexit party, and failed to get elected to parliament in 2010 and 2015. In 2024 Farage became leader of Reform and MP for the supersafe seat of Clacton. Richard Tice is Reform’s deputy leader and a multi-millionaire property developer. Zia Yusuf – son of Sri Lankan migrants and former executive director of Goldman Sachs is Reform’s spokesman on Home Affairs.
Fact 3
In the last general election Reform won only 5 seats, despite winning a 14% share of the vote. Both the last General election and these local elections have shown that Reform is a protest vote and they do not have a solid voter base to consistently win outright majorities in a first past the post system.
Fact 4
Reform, unlike the two main parties, do not have the funding, campaigning boots on the ground or an established record of fighting in General elections. They do not have the depth of policy expertise or experience in government unlike the two main parties. They’ll do well to get 650 noncontroversial and credible candidates ready for the next election.
Fact 5
The two party system has dominated UK politics since the war. Either the Conservatives or Labour have formed the government in all elections since 1920, with the exception of a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2010.
Fact 6
The two main parties have deep political roots within British society, which go beyond party membership. The Labour party has strong ties to the union movement with millions of paying members. The Conservatives have strong ties to the right wing media and financial backing from the corporate sector. Both parties are aligned to established think tanks like the Fabian Society for Labour and Policy Exchange for the Conservatives that test and sound out policy and develop manifestos.
The hyperbolic speech about Reform taking over is deliberately designed to create a public opinion and momentum such that a rare probability becomes an actual reality in a General election.
How should Muslims respond to Reform
Firstly, Muslims can’t be complacent about the threat from Reform. However participation in party politics is largely futile, and can be a counterproductive waste of time. Instead Muslims should be using their energy to counter the narrative against Muslims and Islam with on the ground dawa in their communities.
Where Reform has been effective has been in shifting the Overton Window to the right. The Overton Window is a set of ideas and policies considered acceptable in public discourse and opinion.
Reform has mainstreamed anti-immigrant and anti-Islam discourse, aided and abetted by the BBC and right wing media. The political left then try to recapture the populist vote by moving to the right. The centre ground moves to the right and right moves to the far right. The far right isn’t then seen as extreme as it was previously.
The ordinary people of this country are being manipulated by Islamophobes with an agenda.
Allah says in the Quran:
Invite ˹all˺ to the Way of your Lord with wisdom and kind advice, and only debate with them in the best manner. Surely your Lord ˹alone˺ knows best who has strayed from His Way and who is ˹rightly˺ guided
Surah Nahl:125
Most people are misinformed and we need to differentiate the misinformed from the Islamophobes. For the majority of British people we need to win the battle for hearts and minds. This is not about just giving out samosas and pakoras at the local mosque on open days but opening up a discussion on their understanding and criticism of Islam. From an ideological perspective discussing ideas like:
- Sharia law
- Role of men and women in society
- The role of the State in Islam, Government and Rule of Law in Islam
- Rights of Minorities
- Global events such as Palestine, Sudan, Iran etc…
Discussion on these points will inform and educate. Islamophobes use misinformation to sow seeds of hate and mistrust. Active and constant engagement via mosques, in workplaces, on social media platforms will help to overcome the negative propaganda. This has to be a whole community effort.
Aware Muslim | Empowering Bold Minds
